The theory on how Cosmic Galactic Rays impact the formation of clouds is awesome. At a high level, it does not take much variation on a parameter that reflects 30% of the incoming sunshine to affect temperatures. The theory has gradually been firmed up since 1998 – overcoming critique referring to the Laschamp event 40,000 years ago and with experiments demonstrating the cloud formation details in 2017. All in all, arriving at the conclusion that a decrease in cosmic rays with an energy above 3 GeV since the Little Ice Age has resulted in less cloud coverage over the tropical oceans.
The theory was first proposed by Svensmark in 1998 and has since been firmed up a number of times, most recently in a paper from 2021 describing how solar flares are followed by changes in the cloud coverage a couple days later. Measurements show that it is mostly the temperature of the tropical Oceans that are affected.
Shaviv, an astrophysicist, showed how the amount of Cosmic Galactic rays have varied over time as the solar system traverses in and out of the spiral arms of the Milky Way Galaxy. Relevance here is the coming and going of ice ages back in time.
Global cloud coverage has been measured continuously by satellites since the 1980’s. Since then, the synchronicity between variations in cosmic galactic rays and cloud coverage gets more and more clear. The limited amount of cloud measurements in 1998, when the theory was first proposed, rendered the correlation less robust than it is now. The latest measurements are included in the papaers from 2021, as published by Dubal and Loeb. Hence, the synchronicity between cloud coverage and ocean temperatures that Loeb was showing. Other, mostly Russian, researches have also noticed that cloud coverage dominates the temperature variations (before NASA)
At a high level, it does not take much variation on a parameter that reflects 30% of the incoming sunshine to affect temperatures. The theory (by Svensmark) has gradually been firmed up since 1998 – overcoming critique referring to the Laschamp event 40,000 years ago and with experiments demonstrating the cloud formation details in 2017. All in all, arriving at the conclusion that a decrease in cosmic rays with an energy above 3 GeV since the Little Ice Age has resulted in less cloud coverage over the tropical oceans. Hence, the synchronicity between cloud coverage and ocean temperatures that Loeb was showing. Other, mostly Russian, researches have also noticed that cloud coverage dominates the temperature variations (before NASA).
A fun fact surprisingly few people are aware of is that simple measurements show that the CO2 concentration increases much more after ‘warm’ years than after ‘cold’ years. In itself, this sequence is the opposite of the global warming dogma, stipulating that rising CO2 concentrations lead to rising temperatures, but the measurements show that it is the other way around.
The physics linking the various factors in global warming together are described with much clarity by Poyet in his (free) book from 2021. Poyet covers all the topics from the radiation balance in the atmosphere through to the temperature dependence of the solubility of CO2 in the Oceans. Using basic physical chemistry from 1802 (Dalton’s law), it is known that the oceans (water) degas CO2 when the temperature increases. Satellite measurements show that most of the CO2 is ‘liberated’ in the tropical oceans.
The global CO2 balance is quite a story, with CO2 being emitted by fossil fuels and warm oceans whilst being absorbed by cold oceans and by the growth of algae and trees. The speed at which CO2 circulates in this circuit of life is central to understanding the CO2 concentration in the air and in the water. Berry provides an excellent analysis of this problem, carefully calibrating the equations using the CO2 isotope measurements at Mauna Loa and the speed at which the Carbon 13 isotopes concentration decreased in the atmosphere following the testing of nuclear bombs in the 1950’s and 1960’s. These calculations show that of the total increase in atmospheric CO2 from 300 ppm to 400 ppm, only 25% originate from fossil fuels. Hence fossil fuel related CO2 accounts for 25 ppm of 410 ppm – that is 6% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Shakespeare might have said ‘Much ado about nothing”….
Much has happened wrt. the carbon budget calculations since 2013, with articles demonstrating that the 2013 calculations are wildly inaccurate. They underestimate the impact of greening, the impact of the oceans and the overall speed at which CO2 circulates and they fail to honor the isotope analyses on Mauna Loa which show that today only some 6% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere is from fossil fuels. Partly as a result of this, we continue to hear that the CO2 we emit today will stay in the atmosphere for ‘hundreds’ of years – while the atomic bombs from the 50’s show that half of the CO2 is absorbed within 5 years. Rest assured, the next round of IPCC modelling will not mention/uncover this, because IPCC specifically have stated in the modelling protocols that there cannot be a long term trend in solar irradiation. Hence, the only parameter that has changed in the last 150 years is the CO2 concentration rising by 0.01%. The conclusion is thus given a priori, provided you use the right forcings/multipliers (sic). This of course also means that none of the models will show that 75% of the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration since the Little Ice Age is due to increasing ocean temperatures (due to less clouds, due to less cosmic rays).
It is difficult to be serious about the impact of CO2 on ‘Global Warming’ without a proper rendition of how CO2 actually blocks outgoing radiation and hence how the Greenhouse effect really works. This opinion was also held by Francois Gervais, professor of Thermodynamics, who lamented that there was not a trace of an infrared spectrum curve in the 1500 pages of the IPCC AR5 report. Hence, he published an outstanding book covering what in fact most engineering students have as part of their curriculum – myself included. The conclusion is that a doubling of the CO2 concentration from 400 ppm to 800 ppm has a near-zero impact on the radiation balance because 400 ppm already blocks nearly all the radiation at the frequency CO2 molecules are capable of. You cannot block the same radiation twice.
My favourite papers on Climate Science are listed below.